Statistics

Happy Happy May Day!

Well that is enough for positive attitude ... now on to normal negativity ... it is so much easier ... not maybe so happy ... but then it does put you in line with the majority of people.

Well it seems that as one listens to the commentators of all stripes, they seem to have some commonality. Everyone talks in percentages. 52% prefer X over Y. The DOW was up .2% today. Office Depot quarterly earnings were down 55% beating analysts predictions sending it stock up 3.8%. Joe Quarterback completed 65% of his passes on the left side of the field and only 50% to the right side.

What do we know? Do we know how many people were asked? Do we understand that if you ask 600 people from around a state and we asked them a tainted question that we will get a predetermined answer?

If the DOW thirty stocks were up .2% what does that mean for the Russell 1000 which is a broader measure of how the market did yesterday? Should we care what a manufactured number, the DOW is a manufactured number to only go up over the long haul. When a company is not growing they throw it out and find a new growth stock so the average will only go up over the long term. But, come on its 30 stocks and you probably don't own them.

The bottom line, the critical point is that you did not pay attention in your statistics class if you took one. Four died in Ohio when I took my course and it was basically a canceled class because we had great sympathy in Illinois for students being shot by 19 year old National Guardsmen in Ohio. So, statistics is something that 98% of all people do not understand. Statistical sampling used by pollsters is something they do not understand and rarely tell you that their number is plus or minus 4-6 ... so a 52 - 48 difference is really 50-50 and no significant difference but CNN and Fox will tell you how one candidate is leading the other.

Stop with the made up numbers until you educate the uneducated. Stop trying to sound smart ... we know you are only reading a tell-a-prompter ... we know you could not explain anything you are saying ... why does anyone list to you spouting those stupid numbers? Please make the numbers go away!